2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
Coming out of Emmy nominations in mid-July the freshman FX series “Shōgun” was just about as dominant as expected, garnering 25 total nominations. Though it would have likely been just as much, if not more successful in the Limited Series categories, the move to Drama has paid off. It is now in line to become the first non-English language series to win Outstanding Drama Series (it’s already second to be nominated after “Squid Game”).
It would be rude to say the show does not have any competition, especially since one of its fellow nominees, “The Crown,” has actually won the category before. But Netflix’s landmark prestige series has been widely perceived as having a bumpy landing with its farewell season. Its best chances are in the acting categories, where the show has had a much better track record over the course of six seasons.
This is the first Outstanding Drama Series nomination for HBO’s “The Gilded Age,” and “The Morning Show” and “Slow Horses” on Apple TV+, which is a real feat considering how hard it usually is to break into the category for a later season of a show. “The Morning Show” would be the strongest of the bunch, as it has already been nominated (and even won) so many Emmys that people often mistake it for having been in the category before. This year it had as many acting nominations as Emmys juggernaut “The Bear,” so voters seem to be watching “The Morning Show,” and willing to embrace it more, but it would just be hard to imagine a show’s third season being its first to win a series award considering TV Academy voters penchant for awarding new shows in the event that a longstanding winner like “Succession” leaves the race (relatively recent examples include “Homeland” and “The Handmaid’s Tale.”)
If there is another first season show that could act as a new discovery for TV Academy members in the period before final voting, it is probably “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” rather than “Fallout” or “3 Body Problem.” The Prime Video series starring Donald Glover and Maya Erskine received a bunch of Guest Actor and Actress nominations for big name cameos that may not have been on people’s radars, so there is a shot that aspect of its nominations could bring some voters its way to eventually embrace “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” as a whole.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings
- “Shōgun” (FX)
- “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- “The Crown” (Netflix)
- “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
- “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
- “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Will Win: “Shōgun”
Could Win: “Mr. & Mrs. Smith”
Should Win: “Shōgun”
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Although “Succession” is over, HBO still has a chance to build upon its two year winning streak in the Outstanding Drama Series category should a show like “The Gilded Age” win. Netflix’s “The Crown” could also become the second show, after “The Sopranos,” to end its run with two non-consecutive wins in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Succession” (ended); “Better Call Saul” (ended); “The White Lotus” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Yellowjackets” (Season 3 is not eligible); “Andor” (Season 2 is not eligible); “House of the Dragon” (Season 2 is not eligible); “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible)
