2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
“Shōgun” has been on producer/star Hiroyuki Sanada’s back from the beginning as the most recognizable face on the FX series that took around six years to come out after it had been announced. The risk was certainly worth the reward, with the adaptation of James Clavell’s 1975 novel leading Drama nominations. Though others may have more scene stealer type roles, Sanada as Toranaga is the glue that holds the Japan-set series together, and exemplifies both the timelessness of the narrative, and the innovative changes that made this specific version of “Shōgun” soar, putting more of an emphasis on the Japanese characters.
But in terms of someone’s performance being bigger than the show, much of the Emmy campaign for “Slow Horses” has been built around star Gary Oldman. There was even a retrospective of his work at the American Cinematheque in Los Angeles pegged to his pursuit of an Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series nomination for the spy show’s third season. Emmy voters have not been one to spread the wealth in recent years — more often category wins go to only one or two shows — but if there is one performance that can convince them to stray away from a “Shōgun” sweep, it is most likely Oldman’s.
The rest of the nominees are no slouches though. Idris Elba may have seem like a surprise to pundits, but if one thinks about Apple TV+ shows that people actually watched, it would be “Hijack.” “Fallout” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” were also both big hits for Prime Video, and their respective stars Walton Goggins and Donald Glover both are previous Emmy nominees. Glover is only docked in this category because when a star also writes and directs the show they are on, voters tend to award them in those categories to make room for another nominee that did not do anything on the show except show up and act brilliantly.
Shockingly, this is Dominic West’s first Emmy nomination, despite years of great work on critically-acclaimed series like “The Wire” and “The Affair,” but ultimately, the final season of “The Crown” was not received super well, and his Prince Charles is not exactly a lovable antagonist (not to say West does not play him well.)
Nominees are listed below in order of likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
- Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)
- Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
- Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
- Idris Elba, “Hijack” (Apple TV+)
- Dominic West, “The Crown” (Netflix)
Will Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
Could Win: Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses”
Should Win: Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun”
More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.
Last Year’s Winner: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: At best, an actor from an HBO series like “The Gilded Age” star Morgan Spector winning would continue the winning streak the pay cable network has in this category. Slightly more likely though is Dominic West being the second actor to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for his portrayal of Prince Charles on Netflix’s “The Crown” (the first was Josh O’Connor for his performance in Season 4.)
Notable Ineligible Series: Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (ended); Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (ended); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible); Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (Season 2 is not eligible)
