2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
For those paying close attention to some of the categories down the line, the nominations for the Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series came as quite a surprise. Not only did no Hulu project make it in, despite being the reigning champs last year with “The 1619 Project,” nothing from other streamers like Apple TV+, who led with “The Super Models” (which shares a director with last year’s winner), nor Prime Video, nor Disney+ (or even big Disney documentary brands like National Geographic) made the cut.
Just Netflix, HBO, and the pay cable giant’s sister network Investigation Discovery are nominees in the category, making for a mix of projects that entered the cultural zeitgeist, projects that were sleeper hits, and respectable fare that appeals to the TV peers that vote for the Emmys.
Most likely to win is “Beckham,” the most popular documentary Netflix released this season. Directed by Fisher Stevens, who has recently been nominated for projects like “Tiger King” and “Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds,” the series gives soccer star David Beckham the “Last Dance” treatment. This time though, it was the moments off the pitch that connected most with viewers—especially the dynamic between the titular figure and his wife Victoria Beckham, a fashion designer and member of the Spice Girls.
While the popularity of “Beckham” came with its fair share of criticism and nitpicks here and there, ID’s “Quiet On Set: The Dark Side Of Kids TV” faced much deeper scrutiny after reaching the masses. The fact that it is nominated likely reflects the good that voters saw in the venture, which really did bring forward the abuse Nickelodeon stars faced at the height of the network’s original programming, and the ethical issue of hiring child actors long term. But the swirl of controversy around the show started to center around the handling of certain interview subjects, from having a former “All That” star who is accused of continuing the cycle of abuse, to leaving others out of the promotion of the series, or not being transparent about the project.
In the middle ground is “The Jinx Part Two,” which is more about the fallout from the Emmy-winning predecessor to the series than it is a TV season that caused a huge stir itself. Still filmmaker Andrew Jarecki and company are very well regarded in the documentary space, so they may see another Emmy as a proper cap to the end of the engaging Robert Durst saga.
Meanwhile “Telemarketers” and “Stax: Soulville U.S.A.” more so serve as discoveries to the wider audience of Emmy voters not working in the documentary space. The former is a bit of a cult favorite, having been produced by the Safdies’ Elara Pictures, and providing a different energy that breaks the pattern of nonfiction shows audiences are regularly being served. Whereas “Stax” is a tad more traditional in its music documentary framing, but is executed very well.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
- “Beckham” (Netflix)
- “The Jinx Part Two” (HBO)
- “Quiet On Set: The Dark Side Of Kids TV” (ID)
- “Telemarketers” (HBO)
- “Stax: Soulville U.S.A.” (HBO)
Will Win: “Beckham”
Could Win: “The Jinx Part Two”
Should Win: “Beckham”
More Category Predictions:
Outstanding Animated Program
Outstanding Talk Series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: “The 1619 Project”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Through ESPN, Disney+, and now Hulu, Disney TV has won Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series the last four TV seasons. While it is working with less contenders than year’s past, there is still ample chance for the company to keep the streak going.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Disco: Soundtrack of a Revolution” (the series will not premiere in time to be eligible); “Erased: WW2’s Heroes of Color” (the series will not premiere in time to be eligible); “Gypsy Rose: Life After Lock Up” (the series will not premiere in time to be eligible)
